Jugos, bebidas, vinos y licoresSep. 14, 2011
Volumen de producción de naranjas navel será un 8.6% menor en el 2012
The Central Valley’s navel orange crop for the coming harvest could be as much as 8.6 percent under the 2010-2011 level, according to a forecast released Monday by the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Its initial 2011-2012 Navel orange forecast is for 88.0 million cartons. In the last harvest, which wrapped up in the spring, a total of 93 million cartons were harvested. There are roughly 40 pounds of oranges in each carton. Of the total Navel orange forecast, 85 million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley. Five counties in the Central Valley – Madera, Fresno, Tulare, Kings, and Kern – account for the vast majority of the nation’s Navel orange crop. The NASS survey, which was conducted from July 15 to Sept. 2, estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box. The varieties included in the report include conventional, organic, and specialty Navel oranges (including Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties).
Survey data indicate a fruit set per tree of 318, below the five-year average of 353 and well below last season’s 418. The average September 1 diameter was low at 2.27, but above the five-year average of 2.246. There are about 133,500 acres of land in California devoted to growing Navels, with an average of 133 trees per acre. Those numbers are the same as last season, the NASS says.
A sample of 575 Navel orange groves was randomly selected proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, and 535 of the groves were utilized in the survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen and grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly selected. The Navel orange sample included organic, Cara Cara, and Blood orange groves. For each randomly selected tree, its trunk was measured along with all connected branches. A random number table was then used to select a branch, and then all connected branches from the randomly-selected branch were measured.
This process was repeated until a branch was reached with no significant limbs beyond it. This randomly-selected branch, called the terminal branch, was then closely inspected to count all fruit connected to it, as well as all of the fruit along the path from the trunk to the terminal branch. Since each selected path has a probability of selection associated with it, a probability-based method was then applied to estimate a fruit count for the entire tree. In the last week of the survey period, fruit diameter measurements were made on the right quadrant of four trees surrounding the two trees of every third grove. These measurements were used to estimate an average fruit diameter per tree. Of the 535 utilized groves, 8 were in Madera County, 85 were in Fresno County, 305 were in Tulare County, and 137 were in Kern County.