Actualidad nacional e internacionalMay. 12, 2017
EE.UU.: Tendencias stock y consumo pér cápita del jugo de naranja 1986-2017 (texto en inglés)
With overall Florida orange production down and about 95 percent of the oranges destined for processing, ERS forecasts orange juice production to decline 20 percent to 435 million single-strength equivalent (sse) gallons in 2016/17 (table 5). Lower juice yields and the decline in overall production so far this season will be supplemented by more imports. ERS forecasts imports to increase to 421 million sse gallons. If realized, this would represent an 8-percent increase from a season ago. Already, year-over-year increases in imports have been reported in 3 out of 4 months of the marketing season. Lower beginning stocks and the decline in production have reduced overall domestic supply availability by 13 percent, which in turn limits increases in export volume. Monthly exports this season are sluggish, lagging below last season’s volumes for 3 out of 4 months, with a rebound in January. Based on these early indications and lower domestic production levels, ERS forecasts U.S. orange juice exports to be down 2.5 percent for this season relative to last season.
Decreased exports and increased imports are estimated to offset lower domestic production and drive up orange juice ending stocks. ERS forecasts 2016/17 ending stocks at 470 million sse gallons, a 15-percent increase from last season’s ending stocks. With lower beginning stocks and lower production, domestic consumption levels dip 26 percent to 706 million sse gallons. Per capita consumption is forecast to drop to 2.17 gallons per person for the 2016/17 season.
To check the figures, click here