Jugos, bebidas, vinos y licoresFeb. 12, 2018
Actualización cultivos de cítricos en Florida y Brasil a Enero 2018
The crop situation in Florida and Brazil
Processing of Early-Mid fruit is complete, and plants are shut down for a few weeks to give Valencia fruit more time to mature. Fruit quality remains poor with brix and ratios running 10.57 and 16.02 behind last season’s low levels of 11.63 and 17.89 but there is a slight uptick in gallons per box at 5.84 vs 5.73 last season. The CAC report through February 4 shows 962,325 boxes of Early fruit remaining. Due to poor juice quality more, fruit has been utilized for FCOJ than anticipated, running 27.7% to FCOJ and 72.3% to SSE through week ending January 27. That has helped to build FCOJ inventory to a 5% increase over last season but the bigger contributor to the gain is this season’s 24.7% decline in movement. Conversely, single strength movement is holding relatively well, down 3.8% but inventory is dwindling, down 22.3% from last season.
Going into the second half of the season the drop rate for Valencia fruit seems to have stabilized so today’s one million box cut in Valencia production instead of the Early-Mids was a bit of a surprise. The total production estimate for the season is now 45 million boxes.
Processors have been able to acquire more fruit as lower quality fruit is diverted from the fresh market to processing. That is helping to keep fruit prices in check, under $5.21 USD Delivered, down from the $5.60 level last month. As far as fruit prices go for next season, Processors are waiting for more insight on next season’s crop. Growing conditions are good with the temperature outlook for highs in the upper 80s, low 90s. Soil moisture is drying out a bit but there is sufficient ground moisture to support the crop until thunderstorm activity picks up over the weekend and into next week.
The production season following a bumper crop is typically lower and estimates on how much lower are trending toward the 300 million box range. With a more normal crop size in the making the industry is not looking for an end to low carry over and supply constraints, and both issues would serve to underpin pricing. While the price in Europe remains in the $2100-$2200 USD/ton range there are expectations that the price will work toward the $2400-$2500/ton if production ends up at or below the 300 million box level.
The USDA Foreign Ag Service report Citrus: World Markets and Trade reported global orange production to fall by 4 million metric tons to 49.3 million. Fruit utilized for orange processing is forecast to decline by 3.7 million tons to 12.3 million tons resulting in 1.7 million metric tons of loss of orange juice, a 16% decline. In Brazil the poor bloom and fruit set leading to lower yields combined with a down cycle season is forecast to create a 15% decline in production to 17.3 million tons. The smaller crop will lead to a 2.9 million ton decline in processed oranges and a 1.2-million-ton reduction in juice production.
February 9, 2018